China's Economy Braces for More Turmoil as Covid Wave Spreads
Comment of the Day

December 15 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China's Economy Braces for More Turmoil as Covid Wave Spreads

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The November data were way below consensus, pointing to a worsening slowdown” which will continue this month, Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. wrote in a note. “Surging Covid infections will offset some of the positive impact of the easing in the near term,” he wrote, adding that “the road to a full reopening may still be painful and bumpy.” 

The scrapping of many of the Covid rules will allow residents to move about freely and for shops, factories and restaurants to remain open without fear of snap lockdowns. However, with the virus likely to sweep through a country largely unprepared for the mass illness and deaths that could occur, fear of infection will probably keep people confined to their homes and weigh on economic activity.

Eoin Treacy's view

China successfully delayed the spread of COVID for more than two years. By abandoning the testing and quarantine policy they have not chosen to frontload the infection rate. The worst of the economic and healthcare fallout will be in the first quarter of 2023. That’s going to have a knock on effect for demand for all manner of goods globally.
The fiscal measures already announced, such as almost $1 trillion for property developers, suggest a recovery is likely once the infection rate peaks. In the meantime copper is easing back from the region of the 200-day MA.


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