“The November data were way below consensus, pointing to a worsening slowdown” which will continue this month, Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. wrote in a note. “Surging Covid infections will offset some of the positive impact of the easing in the near term,” he wrote, adding that “the road to a full reopening may still be painful and bumpy.”
The scrapping of many of the Covid rules will allow residents to move about freely and for shops, factories and restaurants to remain open without fear of snap lockdowns. However, with the virus likely to sweep through a country largely unprepared for the mass illness and deaths that could occur, fear of infection will probably keep people confined to their homes and weigh on economic activity.
China successfully delayed the spread of COVID for more than two years. By abandoning the testing and quarantine policy they have not chosen to frontload the infection rate. The worst of the economic and healthcare fallout will be in the first quarter of 2023. That’s going to have a knock on effect for demand for all manner of goods globally.Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top