China Pork Binge Driving Iowa-Sized Soy Imports on Shortage
Comment of the Day

April 11 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

China Pork Binge Driving Iowa-Sized Soy Imports on Shortage

This is an interesting article by Jeff Wilson for Bloomberg focusing on the outlook for global soybean demand. Here is a section:
The average person in China will consume a record 39.3 kilograms (86.6 pounds) of pork this year, compared with 19.7 kilograms in 1990, based on estimates from the USDA and the U.S. Census Bureau. The population increased by 182 million people over two decades, the equivalent of Mexico and France. At the same time, gross domestic product jumped to more than $5.7 trillion last year from $390 billion in 1990, the International Monetary Fund estimates.

"Our lives have generally gotten better," said Hu Bo, a 38-year-old grain farmer near Qufu city in the province of Shandong. Hu can afford to buy pork three or four times a month.

A decade ago, the meat was eaten only on special occasions such as births, deaths or marriages, he said.

To keep pace with rising consumption, China is expanding its herds, flocks and fisheries, using more feed. The country was a net importer of corn for the first time in 14 years in 2010 and will need to buy 13 percent more soybeans this year, USDA data show. About 80 percent of processed soybeans are fed to livestock as meal, with the rest converted to vegetable oil used in food, chemical products and fuel.

Fish Farms
Soybean demand is increasing from fish farms in China, which already accounts for 63 percent of global output of aquaculture, according to Kimberley. Commercial fish production uses as little as 1.2 pounds of feed to get one pound of meat, compared with 2.8 pounds to produce a pound of chicken and 3.2 pounds for a pound of pork, he said.

"China will continue to import record amounts of soybeans year after year for the foreseeable future," said Douglas Carper, the principal of Omaha, Nebraska-based DEC Capital Inc., a commodity trading adviser and consultant to hedge funds. "We will need record crops every year to meet rising demand, because if we don't, the supply will be razor tight."

David Fuller's view
My view - China offers perhaps the most vivid modern example of how the ranks of the middle classes can swell when economic growth, outstrips population growth by a wide margin. Poverty for many people can be equated with hunger so as incomes improve so do diets. However catering to the palates and increased spending power of hundreds of millions of people, not just in China, is an increasing challenge for the global food industry. At some point prices will rise enough to choke off demand but while this might currently be an issue for the world's poor, it does not yet appear to be an issue which overly affects the middle classes.

Soybeans had become quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it encountered resistance near 1540¢ in February. It found support in the region of the MA from mid March and rallied impressively. It currently shares a short-term overbought condition with a number of other risk assets and is pulling back from the 1400¢ area. However, a sustained move below 1250¢ would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential.

China Yurun Foods Group hit a medium-term peak in November and posted a larger reaction than any seen in the last few years. It found support four weeks ago and has rallied to break the short-term progression of lower rally highs. A sustained move below HK$23 would be required to check potential for some addition medium-term upside.

Tingyi Cayman Holdings, although not specifically in the meat sector, it produces noodles, is a beneficiary of the expanding middle classes. The share has been ranging mostly below HK$21 since late 2009 in a relatively gradual mean reversion. A sustained move above HK$21 will be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Want Want is one of China's largest rice cracker producers. It broke its two-year progression of higher reaction lows in January but has since rallied impressively. A sustained move below HK$6 would now be required to check potential for a resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

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