China Economy Shows More Signs of Stability on Policy Boost
Comment of the Day

September 15 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Economy Shows More Signs of Stability on Policy Boost

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

China’s economy picked up steam in August as a summer travel boom and a heftier stimulus push boosted consumer spending and factory output, adding to nascent signs of stabilization.

Industrial production and retail sales growth jumped last month from a year earlier, blowing past expectations, while the urban jobless rate eased slightly. That improvement came as the government has in recent weeks beefed up pro-growth measures, including plans to spur more spending on home goods and ease curbs on some housing purchases. 

“Perhaps the peak pessimism is behind us,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. “August’s data indicates that the economy is unlikely to suffer from a persisting, deeper downturn going forward even though there might still be some volatility ahead — especially if we take into account the policy factor.”

Eoin Treacy's view

The times when China’s market does best are when the government says it should. We are not yet at that point, but it is looking more likely than not as the number of property developers in trouble increases.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index continues to ease back following the initial post lockdown surge. It will need to break the sequence of lower rally highs to confirm a return to demand dominance. 

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