China Easing Case Grows on �Grim' Outlook, Money Supply
Comment of the Day

December 14 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Easing Case Grows on �Grim' Outlook, Money Supply

This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Concerns include “latent risks” in the economic and financial systems, Xinhua said.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.9 percent lower as stocks slid across Asia after the U.S. Federal Reserve refrained from extra steps to support growth. In other economic releases in Asia today, India's benchmark wholesale-price data showed inflation eased to 9.11 percent.

Industrial production in Europe was unchanged in October from a month earlier and U.S. import prices increased 1 percent in November, according to economists' median estimates ahead of reports also due today.

In China, officials assessing whether to add stimulus are still grappling with elevated house prices and local-government debt burdens after record lending in 2009 and 2010.

“The authorities are cautious about a premature or aggressive easing of policy, while committed to be pre-emptive and flexible to roll out supportive policies if needed,” said Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays Capital, who formerly worked for the World Bank. “The policy focus will be shifting from managing inflation to supporting growth.”

Eoin Treacy's view My view – Cooling the property market has been one of the primary aims of government tightening measures over the last 18 months. These efforts have included raising lending and deposit rates, much tighter reserve requirements for the banking sector, restrictions on second home purchases, even higher loan to value ratios, property taxes are being experimented with and commitments have been made to construct more affordable housing.

Prices in Tier-1 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangdong have moderated and look set to decline further. Other cities are likely to follow a similar path. This is all in line with defined government policy. China's economy is more dependent on investment than just about anywhere else and falling property prices will curtail or redirect that investment.

Housing costs as a percentage of income have climbed steadily over the last few years and were threatening the evolution of a vibrant consumer culture. The imposition of a property tax would help solve the overreliance of local governments on land sales for income and could help ensure for longer-term sustainability. In the short to medium-term, the authorities' efforts to reduce property prices can be seen as contributing to their aim of boosting the consumer economy. The commitment to alleviate poverty by 2020 through wage growth is another aspect to this strategy. In tandem with these policies, the likelihood of additional targetted fiscal and monetary easing is increasing.

The Shanghai A-Share Index is heavily weighted by banks, industrials and materials companies. Many Chinese large cap shares are particularly vulnerable to property focused austerity measures. The Index broke below the October lows yesterday and extended the decline today. A sustained move above 2700 will be required to break the medium-term progression of lower rally highs and question the consistency of the downtrend.

Sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare have outperformed over the last two years and reflect the rise of the middle class as an increasingly important pillar of the economy. However, they have weakened over the last few months and will also need to break their respective progressions of lower rally highs to suggest demand is returning to dominance.

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