China Boss in Peru on $50 Billion Peak Bought for $810 Million
Comment of the Day

November 02 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

China Boss in Peru on $50 Billion Peak Bought for $810 Million

This article from Bloomberg news may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The colliding interests on Toromocho are part of a tectonic shift in the global economy. Over the next 20 years, China and the rest of Asia will trade places with the U.S. and Europe for leadership, says Peter Petri, a professor of international finance at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts.

By 2030, Asia's equity markets and foreign trade will be 20 percent larger than the West's and will consume 40 percent more energy while emitting twice as much carbon dioxide, Petri says.

How China wields influence will determine the way its investments are received, says Daniel Rosen, a principal of Rhodium Group, a New York-based economic advisory firm. China's dominant market position in the production of rare earth metals is producing a backlash for the country, he says. Its 40 percent reduction in this year's export quotas on the materials used in laptop computers, hybrid cars and smart bombs "made it impossible for anybody to tell a benign story about China's intentions once it has market power," Rosen says.

Copper Surges
China's annual needs for copper will almost triple to 20 million tons by 2035, CRU projects. In 2010, it will consume 6.8 million tons, 38 percent of global production, after more than doubling its share of world purchases this decade, CRU says.

As a result, copper has almost tripled on the London Metal Exchange since December 2008 despite the global recession. The metal closed at $8,200 a metric ton on Oct. 29. Jeremy Gray, global head of resources at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong, calls copper "red gold." He says the price may rise almost 50 percent more to $12,000 in six to 12 months.

Eoin Treacy's view Prices for just about all industrial resources have been advancing over the last year in a reflection of the continued growth in per capita consumption in the world's major population centres such as China and increasingly India. Copper remains on an upward trajectory and while it has paused in the region of the prior high near $4, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

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