Cannabis banking bill and retirement package both could actually pass Congress by year's end, analysts say
Comment of the Day

December 02 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cannabis banking bill and retirement package both could actually pass Congress by year's end, analysts say

This article from MarketWatch may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Lame-duck session might result in OKs for 'SAFE Banking Plus' and 'Secure Act 2.0'

It has been a long road for Washington's cannabis banking bill and an unrelated measure targeting the U.S retirement system.

Now both legislative packages have decent or even strong chances of becoming reality by year's end, according to analysts.

The bill that aims to protect financial institutions that work with the marijuana industry (MSOS)(MJ) is known as "SAFE Banking Plus," with the "Plus" referring to its expected inclusion of some criminal-justice reform provisions.

The cannabis banking bill has a roughly 70% chance of passing by the end of December, reckons Ben Koltun, director of research at Beacon Policy Advisors.

"There's a lot of positive momentum. It's just can they come to agreement over some of the details that are outstanding?" Kolton told MarketWatch.

Cowen Washington Research Group is also bullish on the measure, putting its chances at 75% -- up from 60% in October.

"We are increasingly optimistic that Congress will enact the SAFE Act on cannabis banking by the year-end. We now set a 75% probability for passage based on the election outcome, the passage of a cannabis research bill, and the broader progress the Senate made over the last 2 weeks on other bills," said Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg in a note on Monday.

Eoin Treacy's view

I feel very conflicted by the cannabis sector. On the one hand my libertarian leanings support the view that individuals have a right to do whatever they want with their own bodies and everyone’s lived experience is their own to do with as they will. On the other, I hate the smell of cannabis smoke in public areas and the trend of licentiousness is not a positive development for the cohesion and security of society at large.

With that out of the way, the trend of licentiousness continues unabated. The shortage of workers and growing pool of people in retirement suggests the trend is unlikely to turn soon. Providing banking resources to the cannabis sector is a major fillip for the sector. They have until now been forced to only deal in cash and that is less than ideal for high volume businesses.
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