Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2020
Comment of the Day

January 08 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Byron Wien and Joe Zidle Announce the Ten Surprises of 2020

Thanks to a subscriber for this note from Blackstone which may be of interest. Here is a section:

1. The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided. Federal Reserve Chair Powell lowers the Fed funds rate to 1%. Without a comprehensive trade deal in hand, President Trump exercises every executive authority he has to stimulate growth and ward off recession. He cuts payroll taxes to put more money in the hands of consumers.

Eoin Treacy's view

This year I was struck by how close to consensus the majority of the forecasts are, but the first one is certainly headline grabbing. The consensus in the bond market suggests one additional rate cut this year, not three. If the 9th surprise of Treasury yields at 2.5% were to come to fruition it would represent a massive steepening of the yield curve.

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