Business confidence improves after PM Manmohan Singh takes charge of Finance Ministry
Comment of the Day

June 29 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Business confidence improves after PM Manmohan Singh takes charge of Finance Ministry

This article from The Economic Times of India may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
"Over 80 per cent of the CEOs polled felt that the Prime Minister, with the Finance Ministry under his charge, will now act without further loss of time, as he realises that the economy cannot afford any more indecisiveness," it said.

Business environment in the country was damaged because of global conditions and perception of slow domestic policy actions which was exacerbated by global credit rating agencies, it said.

Eoin Treacy's view India's stock market has laboured under the perception that the government was incapable of decision making in the face of persistently high inflation that was exacerbated by supply bottlenecks which are eminently fixable. The fact the Mr. Singh, who has long been heralded for his work as finance minister in the early 1990s, has reassumed that position has been taken as a net positive by investors.

The Bombay Banks Index has been mostly rangebound when compared to the Bombay 500 Index for more than a year. However, the ratio has rallied to test the peaks over the last month and a sustained move below this week's lows would be required to question potential for continued outperformance. In absolute terms the Index broke out of the short-term range today and a countermanding downward dynamic would be required to question potential for additional upside.

Over the course of what has been a relatively firm period for the US Dollar, the Rupee has been particularly weak; with the Dollar hitting a new all-time high against it last week. However, today's downward dynamic is the largest in at least six months and suggests a peak of at least near-term significance. A countermanding upward dynamic would be required to question potential for some additional Rupee strength.

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