Burberry Cites Challenging Market as Revenue Trails Estimates
Burberry Group Plc, the U.K.'s largest luxury-goods maker, reported fiscal first-quarter sales that trailed analysts' estimates as revenue from its licensing business fell in a “challenging” period.
Revenue rose 11 percent to 408 million pounds ($633.9 million) in the three months ended June 30, the London-based company said today in a statement. The average of six estimates compiled by Bloomberg was 417.8 million pounds. Excluding currency shifts, sales climbed 11 percent.
Sales growth was driven by Burberry's own stores, which now account for about 70 percent of revenue. The 156-year-old company is spending on boutiques and digital technology to keep customers interested in its trench coats and other products amid Europe's debt crisis and slowing economic growth in China.
The period was affected by the closure of some licenses, revenue from which fell 5 percent, excluding currency swings.
Full-year licensing revenue is still expected to be “broadly unchanged,” Burberry said.
The company will remain “responsive to the changing external environment,” Chief Executive Officer Angela Ahrendts said in the statement.
Eoin Treacy's view Uptrend consistency for part of the luxury goods began to deteriorate more than
a year ago as the threat of a global economic slowdown began to materialise.
As China's monetary tightening measures began to take effect demand growth for
ever more bags, watches, clothes and cars began to wane. Over the last year,
luxury goods companies have tended to be judged more on their individual merits
rather than as an asset class in their own right. Those with a truly global
footprint have tended to outperform. (Also see Comment of the Day on February
BMW, Swatch, LVMH, Burberry, PPR and Compagnie Financiere Richemont have been largely rangebound for much of the last year but have held progressions of higher major reaction lows since October. They have all at least paused over the last couple of weeks but will need to continue to hold above their respective December lows if potential for additional higher to lateral ranging is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Ralph Lauren has posted its largest reaction since 2008 and has held below the 200-day MA over the last few weeks. A clear upward dynamic will be required to begin to suggest a return to demand dominance and to defray potential for a further deterioration in the trend's consistency. Coach and Hermes have broken their progressions of higher reaction lows and have so far sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs. Mulberry hit at least a medium-term peak near 2500p in May and accelerated lower. While short-term oversold, a clear upward dynamic will be required to suggest demand is returning in the region of the lower side of the underlying trading range. Tiffany encountered resistance in the region of the 200-day MA from March and broke below the psychological $60 area in May. It has paused near $50 but a sustained move back above $60 would be required to suggest a return to demand dominance and question top formation completion.
Essilor International and Remy Cointreau continue to hit new all-time highs but are becoming increasingly overextended and prone to reversion towards their respective means. Luxottica Group and Christian Dior found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs last month and would need to take out those lows on a sustained basis to question the consistency of their medium-term uptrends. Hugo Boss found at least short-term support in the region of the MA last week and a sustained move below it would be required to check potential for some additional upside. Tods has returned to test the region of the MA and will need to continue to demonstrate support in this area if potential for additional upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.
Among department stores Saks, Nordstrom and Debenhams have all found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs over the last few weeks and sustained moves below their trend means will be required to question potential for additional upside.