The warming Atlantic and patterns in the Pacific, from the short Madden Julian Oscillations to the evolving El Niño, will create an active early Atlantic hurricane season that slows down, especially in October and November making it probable that this season will have a near normal number of storms.
o Typically, these conditions tend to torque the tropical storms eastward. In similar years, the Western Gulf saw relatively little activity after the early part of the season. Florida and the East Coast are at increased risk, particularly from subtropical storms.
o The same hot Atlantic water that shaped a warm winter will be shaping a hot early summer for the central and eastern portions of North America. There is a high risk (80%) of drought continuing in much of the Southeast.
o The threat of a solar storm damaging satellites and electrical grids is real and will probably happen over the next four years. The polarity of these storms make them riskier than they were at the peak of the last cycle in 2000.
o Electrical grids in North America, China, Australia and Scandinavia face the greatest threat. Pipelines in those countries and Russia could also face some disruption.
o Utilities and nations around the world responded properly to solar threats last cycle and during the medium-sized incident last March. They are not prepared for any event as large as the 1921 storm.
David Fuller's view That hot early
summer has damaged US grain and bean crops, making it less likely that global
reserves of these staple foods can be replenished.
Don't miss the spectacularly illustrated section on solar storms in this issue.
Evelyn Browning Garriss will be speaking at the 50th Annual Contrary Opinion Form in October, where Eoin Treacy will be representing Fullermoney. This popular event is likely to be a sell-out.