Browning Newsletter: La Niña's Angry Goodbye
Comment of the Day

May 20 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Browning Newsletter: La Niña's Angry Goodbye

My thanks to Alex Seagle of Fraser Asset Management for their fascinating and increasingly read publication on weather patterns, written by Evelyn Browning Garriss. Here are some bullet points:
The retreating La Niña is still shaping colder weather in Northwestern North America, severe drought in Texas and the Southwest and huge storms and tornadoes where the two meet the warm moist Gulf and Atlantic air masses.

The La Niña is expected to be neutral by May or June and the tropical Pacific should remain neutral for the rest of the year. If this timing is right, the US should be able to produce a near average crop. Drought concerns for some areas, like Texas, until August.

The hurricane outlook includes 3 hits in Gulf platform areas with at least 2 making a US landfall.

The retreat of La Niña by June should help Asian crop yields. Meanwhile the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has strengthened the long-term outlook for monsoons in North and Central China and India while weakening them in Southern China and Pakistan.

Southeast Asia will be a relatively stable area which is good for rice exports.

The short-term outlook for Asia is good - a return to more normal weather and a good growing season. In the long-term - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will have its most profound impact on the continent of Asia - shifting temperatures and precipitation in a continent that depends on traditional agriculture.

David Fuller's view These are extremely optimistic forecasts relative to the weather havoc of recent weeks, which has jeopardised global food production once again. Nevertheless it is still early in the season and if Evelyn Browning Garriss is correct, and she certainly has been in anticipating weather problems for many agricultural regions of the world, a major food crisis could be averted.

I commend this issue to subscribers, for its detailed discussion of weather patterns, plus wildcards in terms of volcanic activity. The graphics are superb.

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