BRIC By Brick: The Demographic Dream Unravels
Comment of the Day

September 02 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

BRIC By Brick: The Demographic Dream Unravels

This article by Shankkar Aiyar for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

The arc of electoral expediency demands a saleable alibi, a villain, and a promise of prosperity at the end of the rainbow. The rash of legislation and the promise to expand the enclave of reservations may at best serve as a placebo. The spectre which could come to haunt India is up ahead. What is important to recognise is the scale of the challenge. India’s 2020 population is estimated at over 1.39 billion of which 67% or nearly 925 million are of working age. By 2050 India’s population will touch 1.63 billion – and the working-age population is expected to touch 1.11 billion.

Demography is not destiny. India’s politicians are right to fear the looming spectre of rising working-age population and unemployment but both the cause and consequence are of their making. India needs structural reforms to propel growth. Effectively the demographic dream rests on the hope that India’s rulers would tune policy to empower the willing millions. Without growth, politicians will only be left with poverty and promises to redistribute.

Eoin Treacy's view

Most India commentators adopt a glass half empty perspective. The performance of the stock market tells a different story.

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