Brazil’s stocks and its currency rallied on signs that President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration is preparing for a peaceful transfer of power after losing Sunday’s election to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The president’s communications chief said that Bolsonaro won’t contest the election, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, a press official for Lula’s Worker’s Party said Bolsonaro’s top aide, Ciro Nogueira, offered a meeting place for transition teams from the outgoing and incoming presidents.
That would be a relief for investors who have been waiting for the incumbent, who had cast doubt on the integrity of the election during campaigning, to concede defeat.
It is looking increasingly likely that Jair Bolsonaro will move into a vigorous opposition rather than contest the election result. Unruly trucker protests notwithstanding, this is a clear positive for the trajectory of governance, although the bar for what constitutes good governance has been lowered significantly over the last decade.
The Brazilian Real continues to hold its sequence of higher reaction lows, within its base formative relative to the US Dollar. The wide interest rate differential makes the Real and an expensive currency to short.
The iBovespa Index continues to firm within its range and a sustained move above 120,000 would confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.
Vale appears to receiving significant interest from institutional investors for a 10% slice of its nickel and copper businesses. That should help fund remedial work at mining sites and a pivot towards battery metals production. The share is firming from the lower side of a two-year range.
Petrobras reacted negatively to the prospect of a Lula win but is firming now as markets price in the scope for a hamstrung government that will not have majorities in the legislative branch.
This article from David Fickling making the point that mining in the Amazon is less damaging to the environment than farming helps to highlight how much the narrative is changing with regard to the merits and need for mining to further the green agenda versus feeding the world.Back to top