The purchases are another reminder that Japan’s slow retreat from ultra-loose monetary policy brings a heightened risk of volatility and intervention across multiple asset classes globally. It also underscores the challenge in interpreting a rates regime that is built on gray lines to let the BOJ be flexible rather than clarity for markets.
“That flexibility is obtained with opaqueness on when they intervene,” said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors Pte in Singapore. “Flexibility is another word for optionality, which potentially manifests as volatility. No one knows exactly when, between 0.5 to 1%, does the BOJ step in meaningfully, which is an awfully wide range.”
Japan has been engaged in a version of modern monetary theory for decades. They have been issuing oodles of debt with no real plan to pay it back because deflation prevailed and there was no urgency. While inflation is the stated desired outcome, it does not come without risk.Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top