BOE Says Markets 'Remain Febrile' But UK Regaining Credibility
Comment of the Day

October 24 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

BOE Says Markets 'Remain Febrile' But UK Regaining Credibility

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“Credibility is hard won and easily lost,” Ramsden said. “That credibility is being recovered. That has to be followed through. A return to the kind of stability around policy making and around the framing of fiscal events will be really important.”

He said the issue with the Sept. 23 statement was that “it had one side of the fiscal arithmetic in it” and that the decision to include forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility will help underpin the confidence investors have in assessing the UK budget due out next week.

“What we are going to get on Oct. 31 will be very important,” Ramsden said. “My sense is that will take account of all the statements on both the revenue and on the spending side.”

Eoin Treacy's view

The bond market has become relevant in politics again for the first time in decades. Liz Truss was unfortunate to find that out in real time. Donald Trump demonstrated that you could engage in procyclical policies and manufacture a swifter expansion. Now most politicians think they can do the same thing. The problem is he did that before inflation took off. Now, the quantity of debt has multiplied, inflation is problematic and fiscal austerity is back on the menu.

UK Gilt yields have hit a peak of at least near-term and potentially medium-term significance with scope for a reversion back towards the 200-day MA.

That also increases scope for the FTSE-250 to unwind its oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA because confidence that “something” is being done is improving.

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