BOE Says Inflation May Have Peaked as Rates Hit 14-Year High
Comment of the Day

December 15 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

BOE Says Inflation May Have Peaked as Rates Hit 14-Year High

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The Bank of England said Britain’s inflation rate may already have peaked and that two of its policy makers believe interest rates are already high enough to drain pricing pressure. 

The UK central bank lifted its benchmark lending rate a half point to 3.5%, the ninth increase in a year aimed at taming soaring prices and the highest level since the start of the global financial crisis in 2008.

“The majority of the committee judged that, should the economy evolve broadly in line with the November Monetary Policy Report Projections, further increases in bank rate may be required,” Governor Andrew Bailey wrote in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. 

Eoin Treacy's view

This verbiage differs significantly from the warnings delivered by the ECB and the Fed over the last few days. Both continue to suggest there is significant need for additional interest rate hikes. At her news conference today Christine Lagarde appeared to be channeling Margaret Thatcher in her statement that today’s decision should in no way be construed as a pivot. 
The Pound encountered resistance this week in the region of the trend mean versus the Euro and appears likely to unwind its short-term overbought condition relative to the Dollar as well.
With a large number of mortgage fixes rolling off in 2023, the UK has some particular challenges in continuing to raise rates. Meanwhile, the Gilt yields continue to contract. That suggests the bond market is aligned with how the Bank of England views the inflation threat.
The Euro STOXX Index is working on a large downside weekly key reversal. That suggests a peak of at least near-term and potentially medium-term significance.
The FTSE-250 is pulled back from the 200-day MA and continues to hold the medium-term sequence of lower rally highs.
The size of the ECB’s balance sheet took a step lower already but official quantitative tightening is only expected to begin in March. The prospect of Italian bonds being sold by the ECB is pushing spreads higher.

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