1.Due to its unusual investment characteristics in terms of performance, correlation and volatility, Bitcoin (and selected altcoins) can serve as useful supplement within a diversified portfolio.
2.Gold and Bitcoin are non-inflatable and as such profit from monetary inflation. Together they shine even brighter due to a superior risk/return profile. We are convinced that an increasing number of investors will treat Gold and Bitcoin as parts of one non-inflatable asset class.
3. Most altcoins are not here to stay. However, some projects have the potential to serve as market disruptors and substantially change aspects in our lives. Conceptionally, we consider (most) altcoins more like venture capital investments, whereas Bitcoin to us is digital Gold.
4. Various indicators are signaling a bullish environment for Bitcoin. However, the most relevant model to monitor is the S2F model by PlanB. In this regard, it is our opinion that the current halving cycle is not over yet. Our base scenario is a delayed peak in this cycle. If this assumption is correct, we could see the Bitcoin price pushing above USD 100,000 in the coming months.
Here is a link to the full report.
As a trend persists, the evidence from past performance swells to make the bullish case more convincing. This is doubly true for bitcoin because despite its history of significant drawdowns no one who has held the asset for four years has sustained a loss regardless of the price they paid. That’s only possible because the trend has been so strong and the breakouts, when they come, have been among the most explosive of any asset ever.
It that was all a trend needed to persist no price chart would ever enter a prolonged downtrend. The reality is trends need lot of new money to come in and pay all time new highs for an asset to sustain an acceleration. That’s a lot easier when money is free and available.
Therefore, if the bullish bitcoin forecasts are to reach fruition, a massive new source of money will be required to enter the market. That implies, the economic impact from omicron variant, or maybe the Pi variant to go with the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, will need to be bad enough to lend bitcoin the monetary/fiscal fuel it needs to sustain a tripling in value to more than $2 trillion. Without that fuel, the price will continue to drift/deflate.
The recent price action continues to support the view that bitcoin is a risk asset that has been a lead indicator for the wider stock market over the last couple of years. On this occasion it peaked on November 10th versus November 22nd for the S&P500.