Bernard Tan: Why All the Fuss? Why Not Keep the Analysis Simple?
There are an awful lot of things to keep the worry worts of this world pre-occupied. It seems to me that the economic watchers of the present world are always looking for a cliff of some sort to fall over. Bad news can only mean worse is on the way. Good news is dismissed as temporary blips.
It's almost as if everyone has been so traumatised by the global financial crisis in 2008 that they can no longer bring themselves to believe that economic engines can gain traction ever again. Any spurt of dynamism is simplistically attributed to the wall of money injected by central banks and is nothing but morphine, the effects of which will be temporary.
This is really too pessimistic.
I tend to see a lot of things to feel cheerful about.
David Fuller's view Scary October is over; the words 'euro' and 'crisis' are no longer inseparable; election uncertainty in the USA will soon be resolved; China's ruling hierarchy for the next decade is about to be confirmed, and the US 'fiscal cliff' will be addressed in some fashion because politicians do not voluntarily jump off cliffs in lemming fashion.
The major central banks are in stimulative mode, from the USA to Europe, to China and now Japan. Most stock market indices remain in overall upward trends, periodic corrective phases aside. Commodity price inflation has eased and the 'safe haven' government bond market bubble has yet to burst.
Fullermoney is in general agreement with Bernard Tan.
This related article from Bloomberg: Manufacturing in U.S. Expands at Faster Pace in October, provides further evidence of improving fundamental data.