Bernard Tan: Global Rebalancing Well Underway
Comment of the Day

August 06 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Bernard Tan: Global Rebalancing Well Underway

My thanks to the ever-interesting Bernard Tan for this report. Here is the opening
The general consensus is that the US is suffering from chronic trade deficits and is frittering away its future wealth importing (& consuming) the production from the rest of the world.

Not many people realise that the US is in fact one of the biggest exporters in the world. In 2009, its exports totalled US$1.05 trillion. Only 2 countries exported more - China (US$1.20 trillion) and Germany (US$1.12 trillion).

The reputation for being "just a voracious consumer that produces nothing" comes from the size of its imports, which in 2009 totalled US$1.56 trillion!

But the trade balance is already shifting. The chart below shows the monthly trade balance of the US (exports less imports).

Note that the trade deficit actually peaked in late 2005/early 2006, well before the financial crisis and recession. This suggests that some structural adjustment in the US's role in the world economy had already begun more than 4 years ago.

David Fuller's view This is another reason why we should resist the emotional cul de sac of irrational pessimism.

Back to top