Barrick Gold Profit Trails Estimates as Mining Costs Climb
Comment of the Day

November 01 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Barrick Gold Profit Trails Estimates as Mining Costs Climb

This article by Liezel Hill for Bl oomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest producer of the precious metal, reported third-quarter earnings and sales that missed analysts' estimates after mining costs rose more than expected and production fell.

Profit excluding impairment charges, foreign-exchange losses and other items was 85 cents a share, Toronto-based Barrick said today in a statement, trailing the 99-cent average of 23 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales declined to $3.44 billion from $3.97 billion, missing the $3.65 billion average of eight estimates. The shares fell as much as 7.6 percent.

Barrick earnings have disappointed for four consecutive quarters as it struggles to contain costs that are rising at a faster pace than the gold price. The company, which fired Chief Executive Officer Aaron Regent in June and replaced him with former Chief Financial Officer Jamie Sokalsky, is in talks to sell African mines and is reviewing other assets. Barrick today raised its cost estimate for the multibillion-dollar Pascua-Lama mine on the Chile-Argentina border for the second time this year.

“It's disappointing that they're increasing the capex again on Pascua-Lama just a few months after they've already given us a whopping increase,” George Topping, a Toronto-based analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., said by phone today. “You would think when you put out the first estimate you would have made darn sure the estimates were closer to what you expected.”

Eoin Treacy's view Barrick Gold rallied impressively from its August low to close the overextension relative to the 200-day MA where it has now encountered resistance. A countermanding upward dynamic will be required to question potential for a further test of underlying trading. The last year has seen a much greater focus on the ability of mining companies to control their costs. Those that fail to do so have been punished by investors. Barrick is no exception.

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index also rallied impressively from late July and found support in the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago. Provided it continues to hold above or in the region of the MA the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Randgold Resources, New Gold and Hecla Mining consolidated their impressive earlier rallies for much of October and remain rangebound. However, clear and sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question potential for additional upside over the medium term. Yamana Gold completed its consolidation this week to post a new 13-year high. Agnico Gold broke up out of its short-term range last week. Coeur d'Alene completed its short-term range last week with a successful move above the psychological $30. (Also see Comment of the Day on September 27th).

Newmont, IAMGold, GoldCorp, Eldorado Gold all found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs this week and a sustained move below the trend mean would be required to question current scope for additional higher to lateral ranging. Kinross Gold is in the region of its MA but an upward dynamic is required to confirm the return of demand in this area.

AngloGold Ashanti, Companhia de Minas Buenaventura, Harmony Gold, and Gold Fields all remain below their respective 200-day MAs.

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