Barclays Sees 'Very Real Competition' From Chinese Underwriters
Comment of the Day

August 18 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Barclays Sees 'Very Real Competition' From Chinese Underwriters

This article by Cathy Chan for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Ginsburg, 47, is leading the expansion of Barclays' investment bank in Asia, where fees from advising on stock sales and mergers have grown faster than in the U.S. and Europe, powered by China's and India's expanding economies. Chinese rivals like Citic Securities Co. and Haitong Securities Co. are planning share sales in Hong Kong to raise money for hiring bankers and expanding offices outside their home market.

Chinese securities companies are using Hong Kong as a stepping stone for expansion outside China, where the government requires foreign investment banks to team up with local partners for stock and bond underwriting. Share-sale fees in the city were 2.2 percent of the money raised last year, the lowest level since at least 1999, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The fee percentage has remained at that level in 2011, the data show.

Guosen Securities Co., this year's biggest stock underwriter in China, more than doubled the workforce at its Hong Kong unit in 2011 and plans to rent more office space in the city, the head of the unit, Lu Xiao Ning, said in July.

Eoin Treacy's view Chinese securities firms are increasingly looking to build a globally competitive business model, predicated on the strength of their domestic businesses. This is in an inevitable step given the size of the country's banks and the capital available to them, despite the ongoing tightening measures imposed by the monetary authorities.

Citic Securities' investment in CLSA is one example of how two well positioned Asian brokerages have found common ground. This article from the New York Times in June may also be of interest. Given this first step, additional joint ventures between other companies appear more likely. Citic Securities, in which I have held an investment position since 2008, continues to range above CNY10. A sustained move above CNY15 will be required to conclusively break the progression of lower rally highs, complete the developing base and indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Barclays shares a similar pattern with the FTSE350 Banks Index. It broke downwards from the 18-month range two weeks ago, bounced somewhat last week but has deteriorated this week and is now retested the low above 150p. A clear upward dynamic, held for more than a day or two would be required to question potential for additional downside.

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