Autonomies with notable chart patterns
Comment of the Day

June 18 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Autonomies with notable chart patterns

Eoin Treacy's view Last Tuesday I reviewed the constituents of the Nasdaq-100 because there were a considerable number that had posted upside weekly key reversals and were following through to the upside. Higher yielding shares were well represented on the list as were those offering exposure to the growth of the global consumer. It will not have escaped the notice of veteran subscribers that many of the shares are Autonomies. (Also see Comment of the Day on May 22nd for the most recent review of these shares).

In addition to many technology shares, the pharmaceuticals, beverages, food and consumer sectors are also worthy of mention. Many of the relevant shares have found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs over the last couple of weeks and are pushing on to post new highs.

Eli Lilly yields 4.67%, found support in the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago and is now pressuring the recovery highs. A sustained move below $40 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Bristol Myer Squibb (3.88%) has been consolidating below $35 since January and a sustained move below $33 would be required to begin to question potential for a successful reassertion of the medium-term uptrend.

Johnson & Johnson (3.5%) surged from the lower side of its yearlong range to the upper side last week. It appears to be only a matter of time before the share can sustain an upward break.

Merck (4.21%) has been ranging below $40 since January. The share rallied impressively from the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago and a sustained move below it would be required to check potential for a successful upward break.

Pfizer (3.71%) has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since early 2009. It found support two weeks ago in the region of the 200-day MA and a sustained move below $21 would be required to check potential for additional upside.

GlaxoSmithKline (5,24%) has been consolidating mostly above 1400p since January and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

Sanofi (4.7%) found support in the region of the 200-day MA over the last couple of weeks and a sustained move below the recent lows near €53 would be needed to question potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Novo Nordisk (1.72%) remains in a ranging consolidation, allowing the MA to catch up following an impressive advance earlier this year.

Biogen remains in a steep uptrend and a break in the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near $125, would be needed to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

In the drinks sector Anheuser-Busch In Bev (2.14%), Diageo (2.4%), Pernod-Ricard (1.8%) and Asia Pacific Breweries (3.2%) have been consolidating since mid-March allowing them to at least partially unwind overbought conditions relative to their respective 200-day MAs. They have firmed within their respective ranges and sustained moves below their trend means would be required to check medium-term upside potential.

SABMiller (2.07%) pulled back to test the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying range where it has found at least near-term support. A sustained move below 2250p would be required to question potential for additional medium-term upside.

Remy Cointreau (2.78%) continues to unwind its overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. It found at last short-term support two weeks ago near €75 and a sustained move below the MA, currently near €70, would be needed to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend. Coca Cola (2.57%) has a relatively similar pattern.

PepsiCo (2.99%) has rallied to test the upper side of the more than two-year range and a sustained move below $67 would be needed to delay potential for a successful upward break.

Starbucks (1.19%) has now posted its largest reaction in the course of what had previously been a highly consistent uptrend. It is testing the region of the 200-day MA near the psychological $50 and will need to find support in this area if the medium-term upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

In the food sector Nestle (3.72%) has been consolidating in the region of the historic peak since April. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA two weeks ago and a sustained move below it would be required to question potential for additional upside. Unilever (3.71%), Heinz (3.5%), Kraft (2.97%) and Mead Johnson Nutrition (0.95%) have all also found support in the region of their 200-day MAs.

In the consumer sector Kimberly-Clark (3.49%) is becoming increasingly overextended relative to the 200-day MA but a clear downward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause. Colgate Palmolive has a relaitvely similar pattern. Hengan International (1.7%) found support in the region of the MA two weeks ago and has rallied to retest the peak. UniCharm Corp (0.80%) has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA. Estee Lauder (0.95%) is also in the region of the MA where it will need to demonstrate support if the medium-term uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Wal-Mart (2.24%) has surged higher over the last month and is now testing the all-time high near $70. While some consolidation of recent powerful gains is becoming increasingly likely, a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Both Herbalife (2.14%) and Nu Skin Enterprises (1.67%) have found at least near-term support following traumatic declines in May. However, they will need to sustain moves back above their respective 200-day MAs to suggest returns to demand dominance beyond the short term.

In conclusion while investor sentiment remains predominately bearish, there is cause for optimism among companies leveraged to the growth of the global consumer.

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