Autonomies that have returned to test the region of their 200-day Mas
Comment of the Day

August 29 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Autonomies that have returned to test the region of their 200-day Mas

Eoin Treacy's view We have previously commented on the rotation that was evident between the consumer and industrial sectors, with the latter moving to a position of outperformance from early this year.

At the present juncture, the industrial sector has hit at least a near-term peak and mean reversion is becoming a reality for an increasing number of shares. The consumer sector led in terms of its mean reversion and a substantial number of shares are now trading in the region of their respective 200-day MAs.

One important consideration is that P/E ratios for the consumer sector are at a premium to the wider market. Therefore while it offers exposure to the growth of the middle class globally, the potential for what may be lengthy ranging has increased.

L'Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Colgate Palmolive, PepsiCo, Estee Lauder, Christian Dior, Walt Disney, Mattel, Hasbro and Amazon are examples of shares that have pulled back to the region of their MAs. Coca Cola, Nestle, Unilever and Wal-Mart have dropped below their MAs.

If we are correct in expecting a more rangebound environment, then the majority of these shares should hold most of their earlier advances as at least a partial process of valuation contraction unfolds.

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