Asian healthcare and medical tourism
Comment of the Day

April 08 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Asian healthcare and medical tourism

Eoin Treacy's view As Asia's disposable income class moves progressively higher on the income per capita scale, the range of products that become affordable to the majority increases. Once people have enough food, clothing, shelter and entertainment, thoughts turn to how to make sure they can enjoy these benefits for as long as possible. Demand for healthcare, insurance, banking and financial planning all kick in as incomes increase.

Asia represents a vibrant growth market for a considerable number of western pharmaceutical companies. Big pharmaceutical companies were among the first to expand into the emerging markets and a number have separately listed affiliates in Asia. For example Merck has a listing in Indonesia while GlaxoSmithKline and Aventis have Indian listed affiliates.

Asia has also been a destination for medical tourism for a number of years and has some of the most accessible investment opportunities for the sector. Singapore listed Raffles Medical has hospitals in Singapore and Hong Kong. The share broke out of an almost two-year range in December but has paused near S$3.50 over the last month in a gradual process of mean reversion.

IHH Healthcare was listed in Singapore and Malaysia last year when Khazanah Nasional, Malaysia's national investment fund, sought an IPO. The company has operations in Singapore, Malaysia, Turkey, China, India, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Macedonia and Brunei and also holds 10% of India listed Apollo Hospitals Enterprise. The share has a growth oriented Estimated P/E of 46 so if the six-month uptrend is to persist, earnings will need to at least meet if not exceed expectations.

India's Apollo Hospitals Enterprise is also trading on a relatively high forward P/E of 36. The share remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Fortis Healthcare is also listed in India and has been ranging mostly above INR93 since late 2011. It has firmed near that level over the last few weeks and a sustained move below it would be required to question potential for an additional rebound.

Thailand's Bangkok Dusit Medical Service accelerated to a peak near THB170 by late March following a consistent four-year uptrend and has at least paused. Potential for a further consolidation of this impressive advance has increased. Bumrungrad Hospital failed to sustain the breakout for an almost yearlong range and has now pulled back into it. It will need to find support in the region of THB75 if the medium-term uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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