Amplats to reveal restructuring plans next week
Comment of the Day

May 01 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Amplats to reveal restructuring plans next week

This article from Reuters appeared in today's Mineweb newsletter and may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Its initial restructuring plan, unveiled in January, called for the mothballing of two mines near the platinum belt city of Rustenburg and cutting up to 14,000 jobs, almost a quarter of Amplats' workforce and 3 percent of South Africa's miners.

That prompted the one-day closure of several Amplats operations by the militant Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), which emerged last year as the dominant labour group in the platinum sector after a bloody turf war with the rival National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

An announcement of job cuts may spark fresh strikes and has raised the spectre of a repeat of last year's labour violence and wildcat action that led to over 50 deaths and cost companies and the state billions of dollars in lost revenue.

Eoin Treacy's view The relatively high marginal cost of production represents a significant challenge for a number of platinum miners. Ambitious wage demands by South African unions might yet represent a bridge too far for more than few mining companies who may be forced to shutter capacity. This should represent a medium-term cushion for platinum metal prices which have been ranging mostly between $1400 and $1800 since late 2011. A bounce of approximately $100 took place over the last couple of weeks but prices will need to hold above $1400 on the current pullback if the benefit of the doubt is to be given to higher to lateral ranging.

Some portions of the platinum mining sector have experienced particularly heavy selling pressure. For example, Canada and UK listed Eastern Platinum has fallen from C$2 in early 2011 to a low of 8 ¢ on the 28 th . It has rebounded somewhat but will need to extend the rally and break the two-year progression of lower rally highs to begin to signal a return to medium-term demand dominance.

South Africa listed Anglo American Platinum has been trending lower since 2011 and is now testing the area of its 2008 lows. A clear upward dynamic will be required to confirm the return of demand in this area.

Northam Platinum is also listed in South Africa and had been among the sector's better performers. However it pulled back sharply from the ZAR4000 area in early April and a clear upward dynamic will be required to confirm support in the region of the 200-day MA.

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