Alex Seagle's Contrary Investor: "Light - God's Eldest Daughter"
Comment of the Day

May 24 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Alex Seagle's Contrary Investor: "Light - God's Eldest Daughter"

I like the long-term approach of this letter published by Fraser Management Associates. Here is a brief section from the lead feature on Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) technology, currently being adopted by the Pentagon and leading US retailers
Folks, the Pentagon has a lot of lights! It is the largest office building in the world, with some 6.5 million square feet in total. Independent tests done by the government suggest the retrofit to LEDs will result in:

o 22 percent reduction in energy usage, with improved light quality

o Payback on investment of less than four years

o Additional and ongoing savings from reduced maintenance costs, and reduced loads on cooling systems

o Elimination of mercury-laden fluorescent bulbs

o 140 tons of CO2 emissions per year eliminated

Adoption of LED lighting seems to be accelerating, sitting squarely at the intersection of highly desired green and socially-responsible technology, and the funding needed to really, truly launch the technology, thanks in large part to President Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.

Typically, new technologies take 10 years or more to flourish, if they ever do at all. LEDs, in my humble opinion, represent the future of energy-efficient lighting, and that future is pretty close to now.

David Fuller's view The Contrary Investor also has a feature on "The Search for a Disconnect", discussing a tasty non-correlated asset, and also a 'blood in the street's contrarian recommendation.

Alex Seagle also organises the excellent Contrary Opinion Forum, now in its 48th year. I look forward to meeting subscribers at this relaxed and enjoyable event in October. There was plenty of controversy when I last participated in the Contrary Opinion Forum in 2008 and I suspect there will be more in 2010.

What about the share mentioned in the section on LEDs?

It is Cree Inc (p&f, monthly, weekly & daily) - a spectacular performer up until April when it became quite overextended relative to its MA. It has seen a correction towards its rising MA and should resume its relative strength when the present stock market correction has ended. Cree is not cheap at an estimated PER of 40 and it has yet to pay a dividend. However earnings are rising rapidly. Cree is listed on the Philadelphia Semiconductors Index.

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