AB InBev Fourth-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates on Budweiser & SABMiller Thick Beer Gains as Brewers Expand in Africa
Comment of the Day

March 08 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

AB InBev Fourth-Quarter Profit Beats Estimates on Budweiser & SABMiller Thick Beer Gains as Brewers Expand in Africa

These articles both from Bloomberg today highlight the drinks industry's potential given the global increase in middleclass consumers. Here is a section from the later:
Volume at the Latin America North unit rose 0.6 percent as beer grew 1.2 percent and soft drinks fell 0.9 percent. An increase in Brazil's minimum wage should boost sales this year, with growth of as much as 5 percent in the first quarter, the executive said.

Dutra also said the company might pursue more bolt-on acquisitions in China, after buying two Chinese brewers last year. Beer volumes in China increased 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter, excluding the impact of those acquisitions, helped by sales of Budweiser and Harbin, the company said.

“The big four breweries still have less than 60 percent of the total market in China, so there is still lots of room for consolidation,” Stirling said in the interview.

AB InBev said it will pay a gross dividend of 1.20 euros, up from 80 cents a year earlier. The company expects to boost its dividend yield to a range between 3 percent and 4 percent, compared with its current yield of just under 3 percent, Dutra said. Fourth-quarter net income rose to $1.9 billion from $968 million a year earlier, the company said.

Eoin Treacy's view The drinks sector is one of the prime beneficiaries of growth in the disposable income class globally. The sector is replete with companies that possess globally recognised brands which dominate their respective niches, offer exposure to the world's GDP growth centres, exhibit impressive growth trajectories and pay solid dividends. (Also see Comment of the Day on November 29th) We refer to such companies as Autonomies .

With major brewers such as InBev in the market for acquisitions, the potential for some smaller Asian brewers to come under additional scrutiny has increased. Singapore listed Asia Pacific Brewery received permission to sell its Chinese unit this week and surged to hit new highs. While somewhat overbought in the short term a clear downward dynamic, held for more than a day or two, would be required to check momentum.

InBev and its Brazilian affiliate, Cia de Bebidas das Americas as well as Diageo and Remy Cointreau share a similar chart pattern. They have all rallied impressively for the latter half of last year to hit new all-time highs. They are becoming increasingly overextended relative to their respective 200-day MAs and while there is no clear evidence that supply is returning to dominance, the risk of a reversion towards the mean is increasing.

SAB Miller and Pernod Ricard broke out of yearlong ranges in January and December respectively. SAB Miller has been consolidating above 2500p and a sustained move below 2250p would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Pernod Ricard has also rallied impressively and is testing its 2007 peak near €80. Some consolidation of recent gains appears likely but a sustained move below €70 would be needed to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

Brown-Forman Corp found support this week near $80, holding the short-term progression of higher reaction lows. A sustained move below $75 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend. Beam Inc has also entered a reversionary period. Boston Beer Co. is now testing its 200-day MA where it will need to find support if potential for additional medium-term upside is to remain credible.

Asahi Breweries remains a Japanese relative strength leader and is currently testing the 2010 peak. A break of the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near ¥1700 would be needed to question medium-term upside potential.

Mexico's Grupo Modelo found support in the region of the 200-day MA and the upper side of the underlying range a month ago. A sustained move below MXN80 would be required to question potential for additional upside.

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