A Battle of Inflation Versus Recession: Views on US Yield Curve
Comment of the Day

July 06 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

A Battle of Inflation Versus Recession: Views on US Yield Curve

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The 10-year yield may have been depressed for a large part of the past 15 years or so because global central banks have increased their balance sheets substantially and have reduced the term premium at the long end of the curve. And so you can get around these possible distortions by focusing more closely on how the market is pricing central bank policy.”

“What you will see is, three to six months from now, most if not all of these recession-probability metrics that we get from the yield curve will begin to start flashing at least orange, if not red.”

No Sense
“The Fed is telling us that they want to go to 3.8% sometime in early 2023; the two-year yield is over 100 basis points below that level right now,” noted Jim Caron, chief fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

“This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever -- unless one of two things: one, the market just doesn’t believe that the Fed is actually going to be able to hike in the way that they’re saying they will, or, something’s going to happen along the way.”

More broadly, “the markets are right now are surrendering to the fact that we’re likely to have a hard landing or a recession,” he said.

Eoin Treacy's view

 Long-dated yields have generally tended to rise during periods of quantitative easing because the Fed crowds out other investors and reduces the risk in other asset classes. Therefore, there is less inclination to hoard bonds and more incentive to buy risk assets; both public and private. That suggests the argument QE depresses long-dated yields is wrong. 

Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top