David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    Donald Trump's Presidency: A Look at His Proposed Policy Shifts

    This compendium from the Wall Street Journal of some of the primary issues facing the incoming US administration may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section on energy:

    At the top of Mr. Trump’s energy and environmental agenda will be unraveling Obama administration policies that touch on everything from carbon emissions to water.

    Much of the action out of the gate will focus on rolling back regulations. Mr. Trump has said he would withdraw Mr. Obama’s signature policy to address climate change, a rule that cuts power-plant carbon emissions. The rule already has faced legal challenges and has been temporarily blocked by the Supreme Court.

    The Trump administration, with the help of the Republican-controlled Congress, also will work toward repealing an Environmental Protection Agency rule bringing more bodies of water under federal jurisdiction. Also targeted for repeal: Interior Department rules that require tougher standards for coal mining near streams and that set new standards for emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and natural-gas wells on federal lands.

    While the Trump administration can’t unilaterally repeal most rules right away, it has several options. The EPA and other agencies can immediately start the process to withdraw regulations, and they can relax compliance requirements over time. Meanwhile, Congress can pass measures nullifying rules that have been completed most recently.

    Immediately confronting Mr. Trump is a decision regarding the Dakota Access oil pipeline, which extends from North Dakota to Illinois and is nearly built except for a crossing of a Missouri River reservoir.

    Mr. Trump may also have a decision to make on the Keystone XL oil pipeline if its developer, TransCanada Corp., reapplies for a State Department cross-border permit the Obama Administration denied in 2015.

    On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump said he would withdraw the U.S. from the global climate agreement signed in Paris in late 2015. He couldn’t immediately pull out of the agreement, but he could begin the process of withdrawing.

     

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    These Are the World's Most Innovative Economies

    This article by Michelle Jamrisko and Wei Lu for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    South Korea remained the big winner, topping the international charts in R&D intensity, value-added manufacturing and patent activity and with top-five rankings in high-tech density, higher education and researcher concentration. Scant progress in improving its productivity score — now No. 32 in the world — helps explain why South Korea’s lead narrowed in the past year.

    Silver medal winner Sweden owes most of its rise to improvement in the manufacturing value-added metric, while Nordic neighbor Finland jumped two spots in large part because of the rise of high-tech firms in the country. Norway held its No. 14 spot from last year.

    Fresh ideas tend to pay off big in Sweden, even as the current government is less business-friendly and has imposed labor taxes that could crimp business investment, said Magnus Henrekson, director of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, a private foundation in Stockholm. The Swedes themselves promote an atmosphere of great personal ambition — unlike some European neighbors that emphasize the collective — and that’s a boon to innovation, he said.

    “In the culture, people are super individualistic — this means that people have ideas and are very interested in pursuing them in this way in order to become wealthy,” said Henrekson. “The incentives are there and the tax system favors them.”

     

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    The Tech Bubble Year 5+

    This very well-illustrated presentation by Anand Sanwal from CBInsights for the benefit of attendees at the CanTech Conference in Toronto may be of interest to subscribers. 

    European Ideological Civil War Laid Bare In Davos

    Europe's leaders lashed out at each other in Davos in an inflamed dispute over how to stop the EU collapsing, laying bare the festering divisions that will plague the European project long after British withdrawal.

    "The whole idea of an ever-closer Europe has gone, it's buried," said Dutch premier Mark Rutte, dismissing calls for full political union as a dangerous romantic fantasy.

    "The fastest way to dismantle the EU is to continue talking about a step-by-step move towards some sort of superstate," he said at the World Economic Forum.

    His comments went to the heart of a fierce battle under way for control over the EU project, and provoked an impassioned counter-attack from Martin Schulz, the European Parliament's president.

    Mr Schulz called it profoundly misguided to give up the dream of political union and retreat to the nation state. "If it's Angela Merkel, or Mark Rutte, or whoever else, they must have the courage to say that we need ever-closer union more than ever in the 21st century, and without it the EU has no future," he said.

    Mr Schulz accused Europe's ministers of subverting the EU in a "double game", agreeing to measures behind closed doors in the EU's council of ministers and then denying any responsibility once they return home. "This is destroying the European spirit."

    He accused prime ministers of arriving for meetings at the Justus Lipsius Building in Brussels and proclaiming before they even enter the door that they are there only to protect their own narrow interest.

    "We have some members sitting inside the European Parliament trying to destroy the EU from within. They are drawing EU salaries, and one of them is running for the presidency of France," he said.

    Frans Timmermans, the European Commission's vice-president, said there was a "fundamental ideological confrontation going on in our EU". He called on Europe's leaders to stop hiding behind subterfuge and pick their side, rather than blaming Brussels for everything. "You need to show your cards, show where you stand," he said.

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    Bankers in Davos See Trump Making Wall Street Great Again

    Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg:

    Wall Street’s high-flyers in Davos, basking in their firms’ strong fourth-quarter earnings, said they’re confident Donald Trump’s incoming administration will loosen regulatory constraints on financiers -- even if it leaves Barack Obama’s signature Dodd-Frank Act largely intact.

    Bank executives, speaking on condition of anonymity at events around the Swiss ski resort, said they’re not counting on Trump to overturn Dodd-Frank. Instead, they expect the federal agencies that enforce the rules to ease up on them and support bankers’ efforts to limit how much capital and liquidity their companies need to pay bills or absorb losses in a crisis.

    The bankers said they recognize that changing or overturning the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act would require support in the U.S. Senate that Republicans may lack. Instead they’re counting on Trump’s team to dial back how supervisory agencies enforce and interpret rules. Led by Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, U.S. regulators have adopted an extra-strict version of the global standards on capital and liquidity set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

    “Legislation, obviously that’s harder to do than just changing regulations,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview with John Micklethwait on Wednesday. “Regulators can change a lot of things easily about compliance, about costs, certain rules about lending, how you use your liquidity, how you use your capital. I would like to see some of those looked at and maybe modified a bit, and I think it would be good for the economy.”

    At a panel discussion on the global banking outlook in Davos Thursday morning, JPMorgan asset-management CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes echoed that view.

    “It’s going to be a great several years,” Erdoes said. “It’s going to be very positive for businesses in the U.S., which should cascade to businesses around the world.”

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    The Evolution of Theresa May Sets Brexit Britain On Course for a Bright Global Future

    Here is the opening and also the last paragraph of this topical article by Fraser Nelson for The Telegraph:

    By her standards, Theresa May was relatively restrained at the Davos summit.  She loves enemies, and not in the Christian way. In front of her stood a congregation of the very people she holds up to ridicule: the plutocratic masters of the global economy, or, as she calls them, “citizens of nowhere”. On another day, she might have delivered one of the machine-gunnings that she reserves for the Police Federation or Boris Johnson. But this time she had another mission: to position Britain as the new global leader in free trade and reintroduce her country to the world.

    The result was nothing short of a manifesto for a new British foreign policy and one of the best speeches given by a Prime Minister in recent years. It was a landmark not only in the evolution of her approach to Brexit, but in the development of her own political identity. It shows how far she has travelled in just a few months.

    The traditional Davos speech involves clichés about the world’s ills and abstract nonsense like the “fourth industrial revolution”. The Prime Minister preferred to talk plainly. Rather than join them in lamenting populism, she sought to explain it: if people’s legitimate grievances aren’t addressed by established political parties, voters turn to insurgents. She could have added that Britain, virtually alone in Europe, has no problem with populism: the BNP dead, Ukip in crisis. And why? Because we had Brexit. It was not a Trump-style disruption; Brexit was how Britain avoids Trump-style disruption.

    This is the point that European leaders find hard to understand. From Sweden to Sardinia, they are facing Eurosceptic insurgents whom they portray as barbaric and xenophobic. So they tell themselves (and their voters) that Britain has succumbed to a similar malady and is now sinking into a pit of hate crime, nativism and isolationism. This is not an anti-British agenda, necessarily, just the panic of politicians who can’t think of other ways to fend off new challengers. Mrs May came to offer some gentle advice: if you respond to people’s concerns, populism tends to go away. As Britain’s recent mini-revolution has just demonstrated.

    Still, the Prime Minister has arrived rather late to all this. One of the great risks of Brexit was that the vote would be portrayed as a once-great country in meltdown, retreating from the world. Such concerns needed to be answered clearly, calmly and repeatedly. Had Boris Johnson become Tory leader he would have done this from day one. But Mrs May arrived in office implementing what seemed to be a far meaner version of Brexit than the one compellingly articulated by the Vote Leave campaign. We heard about EU nationals as bargaining chips, companies drawing up lists of foreigners, and new rules making it harder for foreigners to buy British companies.

    And:

    In her speech, she quoted Edmund Burke, to the effect that if a state cannot change, it cannot survive. That good governments do not become wedded to mistakes, but scour the horizon for opportunities and adapt with the times. As she has worked out, the same is true of prime ministers.

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    Bond Guru Who Called Last Bear Market 40 Years Ago Says Go Long

    This article by Andrea Wong for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Money velocity isn’t a bullet-proof economic indicator. Financial innovation, and the rise of shadow banking, have made it hard to measure exactly how much money is floating around in the financial system. And some would say that "money" itself is going through an identity crisis these days.

    Hunt isn’t the only one seeing the record-low pace as an ominous sign. The fact that money velocity declined rapidly during years of near-zero interest rates may signal aggressive monetary easing actually led to deflation instead of inflation, economists at the St. Louis Fed wrote back in 2014.

    "In this regard, the unconventional monetary policy has reinforced the recession by stimulating the private sector’s money demand through pursuing an excessively low interest rate policy," economists Yi Wen and Maria A. Arias wrote.

    "I know I’m the minority here,” Hunt said. “I’m just trying to see the world as I think it should be seen.”

     

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