For the Tories, there is now a clear choice: George Osborne must either find a way of cutting taxes by a large, game-changing amount, or they will lose the next election. On current trends, the Conservative party faces catastrophic defeat in 2015; even though the economy is now growing at a much faster rate than almost anybody predicted, the latest YouGov polling shows that Labour still leads easily, by 39pc to 32pc, with the Lib Dems on 11pc and Ukip on 12pc.

The gap isn't narrowing, which is why it is time for Osborne to turn to radical tax cuts, the last remaining unused but - given the sorry realities of coalition - realistic weapon in the Tory armoury.

There are many reasons for the Tories' woes, of course, including insufficiently inspired leadership and a Tory brand that remains tainted and distrusted in large swathes of the country, handing the small "c" conservative vote to Ukip.

But economic reality is the biggest problem, and is what could hand Downing Street to Labour in 18 months' time.

Real wages are still falling sharply: average pay rose by just 0.7?pc over the past year; by contrast, inflation on the retail price index remains at 2.6? pc. That translates into a vicious national pay cut of 1.9?pc.

Savers, traditionally a bedrock of Tory support, are also being eviscerated by ultra-low interest rates: the lethal combination of inflation and taxes means that capital is being destroyed on a massive scale, gradually impoverishing millions. As to those seeking to convert pension savings into annuities, the situation is even more appalling, and is forcing many to delay retirement.

David Fuller's view

I agree with this article, and think it would be very unfortunate for the UK economy if Labour were to regain power at the next general election. If the Tories are re-elected, I think George Osborne will deserve most of the credit.