"Gold No Slam-Dunk Sell in China as Aunties Buy Bullion"
Comment of the Day

November 25 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

"Gold No Slam-Dunk Sell in China as Aunties Buy Bullion"

Here is the opening from this informative article from Bloomberg:

Yang Cuiyan, a 41-year-old housekeeper from Anhui province, is one reason China is poised to topple India as the world's top consumer of gold even as investors desert the metal.

"I don't know anything about the stock market and I don't have enough money to buy property, so I figured gold is the safest choice," she said. "I can put it on when I go back home to show everyone that I'm doing well."

Yang, who made the 650-mile (1,000-kilometer) journey to the capital from her rural home to visit relatives and shop, is one of the legions of middle-aged Chinese women, respectfully referred to as aunties, who bought coins and jewelry this year, bringing support to a market shunned by many professional investors who began doubting the metal as a store of value.

Bullion consumption in the world's second-largest economy will surge 29 percent to a record 1,000 metric tons in 2013, according to the median of 13 estimates from analysts, traders and gold producers in China surveyed by Bloomberg News. Demand that may ease 2.4 percent in 2014 from this peak still points to purchases greater than any other nation and more than the U.S., Europe and the Middle East combined.

China's demand for jewelry, bars and coins rose 30 percent to 996.3 tons in the 12 months to September, while usage in India gained 24 percent to 977.6 tons, according to the London-based World Gold Council. India was No. 1 for calendar 2012.

David Fuller's view

Gold remains in an overall downward trend; Goldman Sachs it talking it lower and western investors and traders are still drifting away from the Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold. However, it is also oversold in the short term and near prior support from the late June low. Today, we saw an upside key day reversal for gold (weekly & daily). Upside follow through tomorrow would suggest at least short covering. Gold's high-beta proxy Silver also had a key day reversal today (weekly & daily) and is similarly near prior support.

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