Oil Traders Say $100 Coming as OPEC Strains to Fill Iran Gap
Comment of the Day

September 24 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Oil Traders Say $100 Coming as OPEC Strains to Fill Iran Gap

This article by Javier Blas, Heesu Lee, Alfred Cang and Dan Murtaugh for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Major oil trading houses are predicting the return of $100 crude for the first time since 2014 as OPEC and its allies struggle to compensate for U.S. sanctions on Iran’s exports.

With Brent crude already jumping to an almost four-year high on Monday, that’s exactly the kind of price surge President Donald Trump has been seeking to prevent by pressuring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise production. Yet the cartel and its allies gave mixed signals at a meeting in Algiers on Sunday, ultimately showing little sign they would heed U.S. demands to rapidly push down crude prices.

OPEC’s reticence, combined with signs of accelerating supply losses from Iran, created a bullish mood the annual gathering of the Asian oil industry, traders, refiners and bankers in Singapore on Monday.

“The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. co-founder Daniel Jaeggi said in a speech at the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, knows as APPEC. “In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of $100 a barrel.”

Eoin Treacy's view

Saudi Arabian official stated only last week that they are comfortable with the idea of oil trading above $80 so it is not so surprising that OPEC is not racing to increase supply not least since its members all rely on high oil prices to balance their budgets.

Brent crude broke successfully above $80 today and if the rallies over the last year are any guide then we can expect a rally of approximately $10 before the next somewhat larger pause. A clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for additional upside.

The S&P500 Energy Index is rallying back towards the upper side of a two-year range.

The FTSE-350 Oil & Gas Producers Index, led by Royal Dutch Shell, bounced last week from the region of the trend mean and the upper side of the congestion area that prevailed between 2010 and 2014.

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