Oil Heads For 8-Month Low as Specter of Global Shortage Fades
Comment of the Day

November 06 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Oil Heads For 8-Month Low as Specter of Global Shortage Fades

This article by Samuel Robinson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“Oil prices don’t have any real reason to rally significantly,” said Phil Streible, senior market strategist at
R.J. O’Brien & Associates LLC in Chicago.

Crude has tumbled about 20 percent since touching a four-year high last month as bearish supply signals around the globe crowded out concerns about disrupted exports from Iran and Venezuela. The waivers announced this week by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo apply to China, India and six other nations.

“The U.S. has for now given a lifeline to Iran,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “The end result of the sanctions is softer than expected. The final outcome of the sanctions also confirms the political fear of high gasoline prices.”

Eoin Treacy's view

By issuing exemptions to tariffs to China and India, Iran can now import equipment and material from those countries to try and boost production. That essentially hands the Iranian oil market over the Asia and pretty much re-establishes the status quo that existed before the liberalisation agreement was put in place.

Brent Crude Oil dropped below the trend mean today and is now testing the psychological $70 area. The chart has gone from being very consistent to inconsistent over the course of this decline. It also offers a clear example of failed break, where the dynamic of the failure is greater than the dynamic of the breakout resulting in a retest of the lower side of the underlying range. The big question now is whether a vacuum of demand has formed below $70. A clear upward dynamic will be required to check supply dominance.
Natural gas is testing the upper side of its almost two-year range, as a cold snap highlights low inventory levels ahead of the winter season. A clear downward dynamic will be required to question demand dominance.

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