Bank of America Sees Norilsk as 2015 Standout: Russia Overnight
Comment of the Day

January 09 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Bank of America Sees Norilsk as 2015 Standout: Russia Overnight

This article by Halia Pavliva and Elena Popina for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The weaker ruble has driven inflation to the highest in more than five years while at the same time helping some commodity exporters that make sales abroad while covering their costs in the local currency. Nickel prices may rise 18 percent on average this year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

?Norilsk pays half its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as dividend, plus a special payout for 2015, according to Bank of America’s research report dated Jan. 5. Analysts also cited its exposure to nickel and palladium as well as an “attractive valuation” as reasons they like the stock. The London-traded shares trade at 5.5 times projected 12- month earnings, less than half the average of 16 global peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“Investors are focusing on non state-run companies that benefit from a weaker ruble, demonstrate strong cash flow and pay dividends,” Slava Smolyaninov, the chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp. in Moscow, said by phone Monday. “The idea is that they can avoid the sanctions risk that way.”

Eoin Treacy's view

It is open to question whether one really needs to get involved in Russia considering the geopolitical risk attached to the current administration. Falling oil prices have been an enormous benefit for many Asian countries but couldn’t be worse for countries like Russia or Venezuela. The Ruble has bounced from its lows but we do not yet have conclusive evidence of bottoming while the threat of an additional geopolitical deterioration remains non trivial.

Nevertheless, if one were to think of one Russian company the world simply cannot do without it would be Norilsk Nickel, since it is the dominant supplier of both nickel and palladium. The share (Est P/E 7.65, DY 21.12%) has returned to test the lower side of its almost five-year range and bounced impressively this week. A sustained move below $14 would be required to question potential for an additional bounce. 
  

 

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