As Farnborough Air Show Sizzles, Airbus Makes Expo a Slow Burner
Comment of the Day

July 19 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

As Farnborough Air Show Sizzles, Airbus Makes Expo a Slow Burner

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“Boeing has been the biggest beneficiary at Farnborough to date,” said Sheila Kahyaoglu, an aviation analyst at Jefferies LLC.

Airbus Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury acknowledged in an interview Monday that business was “probably a bit less now than it used to be in the past because we are constrained by the supply chain.”

The Toulouse-based company has had to grapple with so-called gliders -- fully built aircraft sitting on the ground without engines that can’t be completed amid a shortage of components, from engines to computer chips The planemaker now has 26 planes without engines, six more than at the end of May, according to Faury, who said he’s optimistic the issue will be resolved by the end of the year.

Besides, the company came into the show with some major orders under its belt, including a deal from China for 292 airliners worth more than $37 billion just this month.

Even if Airbus has to cede the commercial bragging rights to Boeing this year, the European company can take solace in the fact that it has an order backlog stretching out years, giving it little reason to hunt for fresh deals. The company’s best-selling A320 family is sold out until 2027. Faury said his priority now is to serve existing customers and get the supply chain sorted.

Eoin Treacy's view

Airlines are still buying planes with the expectation business will return to normal in due course. Of course, with the backlog of orders at Airbus and Boeing they are not under any pressure to take delivery in the short term. Meanwhile the most pressing issue is the oil price and staffing levels.
Brent Crude continues to hold the psychological $100 level and was up in a dynamic manner yesterday and improved on that performance today. That’s a significant cost centre for the airlines so it is certainly a potential headwind.

The challenges airlines are facing with staffing and airports’ inability to tackle summer capacity are new and will probably take some time to work out. There is clear dispersion within the sector. Taiwan’s China Air is a clear outperformer. International Consolidated Airlines and Singapore Airlines have clear base formation characteristics while a good many more are attempting to find support above their 2020 lows.

Airbus is clearly benefitting from the weakness of the Euro and the share is currently rebounding to test the multi-month sequence of lower rally highs.

Boeing is currently rebounding from the psychological $100 area.
Among engine manufacturers, GE is attempting to find support at the lower side of the range.

Rolls Royce is beginning to steady following the break below 100p but will need to sustain a move above it to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond short-term steadying.

The impending threat of a recession is likely to contribute to lengthier base formation development for many related shares. Those that outperform will be doing so for a reason which is likely to be linked to a clear competitive advantage.

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