Tim Price: Mayday
Comment of the Day

May 29 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Tim Price: Mayday

My thanks to the author for his ever-interesting letter published by PFP Wealth Management. Here is the opening paragraph:
The most important attribute of any investment is the price you first pay for it. An attractive valuation can ultimately transform even the lousiest of investments into a good deal. But overpaying can turn an ostensibly high quality investment into a dud. Courtesy of trillions of dollars? worth of stimulus (SocGen's Dylan Grice points out that since 2008, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have printed enough money to buy up 60% of the issuance of their public debt) US Treasuries, UK Gilts, Japanese government bonds and German Bunds now represent return-free risk. 5 year paper in each of those markets now yields substantially less than 1%. If they ever amounted to high quality investments, they certainly look like junk now - albeit with a valuation more commonly associated with the bluest of blue chip assets.

David Fuller's view So where do investors go for value and relative safety?

For the most conservative investors, I suggest Dividend Aristocrats and high-yielding Autonomies (the most successful multinational companies).

Adventurous investors looking for eventual capital appreciation may wish to consider China and its regional satellites. Additionally, Europe will still be there whatever happens to the euro and the region offers some very attractive valuations (see also Eoin's comments below).

Lastly, precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum, in the form of bullion or bullion funds. Platinum is currently the cheapest and I will have more to say about it tomorrow.

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