US Job Market Shows Fresh Strength With ADP and Layoff Data
Comment of the Day

July 06 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

US Job Market Shows Fresh Strength With ADP and Layoff Data

This article for Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:  

“The labor market isn’t always going to be this strong. Recessions happen,” Nick Bunker, research director at Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a note. “But today’s data and data from the past several months continue to make a soft-landing scenario increasingly likely.”

Treasury yields surged and the S&P 500 slumped following the reports, which will likely further solidify the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting later in July, following last month’s tenuous decision to pause after 10 straight increases. The broader question is whether strength in hiring will endure, or if the figures represent a last gasp amid other signs of a cooling economy.

Eoin Treacy's view

The surprise jump in hiring increases the potential for even more interest rate hikes by giving the impression there is no chance unemployment is going to rise. The rebound in the technology sector has helped improve sentiment amid the belief that AI is both the saviour and scourge of humanity.

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