The Browning Newsletter: Schizophrenic Weather
Comment of the Day

June 18 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

The Browning Newsletter: Schizophrenic Weather

My thanks to Alex Fraser of Fraser Management Associates, publishers of this fascinating letter written by Evelyn Browning Garriss. It is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here are some of the main topics featured in this issue
• The medium-sized eruption of Alaska's Mt. Pavlof did not change global climate but it did cool a late May cold front and precipitate the Memorial Weekend freeze and snow in North America.

• A cool phase of the small Madden Julian Oscillation in the Pacific has made "mini-La Niña" conditions that may make conditions drier for the Western US in early summer.

• While planting conditions have been difficult, the oceans should supply enough heat to create near normal harvests for Eastern North America and Northern China. Similarly, after a late start of the Indian monsoon, Pacific conditions should help create a near normal rainy season.

• Three factors - volcanic debris, more variable polar jet streams and increased human habitation in high-risk areas - are creating extreme weather and high insurance payouts in the Northern Hemisphere.

• The variable Arctic jet stream, which is slowing weather fronts and prolonging storms and heat waves, correlates with reduced Arctic Sea Ice. If this correlation holds, then the more extreme weather pattern should last for another couple of decades, until the warm, ice-melting, phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is finished.

David Fuller's view Living through London's coldest spring for 50 years, I am somewhat apprehensive about the last snapshot forecast immediately above. However, cool weather is preferable to too hot, in my opinion.

More importantly, after a Biblical run of 7 challenging years for global food production, the late North American and European plantings are a risk but I have yet to see any significant evidence of drought. This was widely feared for the US Far West, until early-Spring when heavy snowfall and rain surprised everyone. Currently, we need sufficient moisture and a mild Autumn to produce bumper crop yields.

These brief comments have not done justice to the beautifully produced Browning Newsletter, which is always an interesting read and is global in its coverage.

Alex Fraser also produces and introduces the exceptionally enjoyable Contrary Opinion Forum, now in its 51st year. Check out this link and you will not want to miss it in early October. Eoin will be speaking again this year and Mrs Treacy will also be attending. Highly recommended!

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