September stress in dollar repo markets: passing or structural?
Comment of the Day

December 09 2019

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

September stress in dollar repo markets: passing or structural?

This article from the Bank of International Settlements may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

This box focuses on the distribution of liquid assets in the US banking system and how it became an underlying structural factor that could have amplified the repo rate reaction. US repo markets currently rely heavily on four banks as marginal lenders. As the composition of their liquid assets became more skewed towards US Treasuries, their ability to supply funding at short notice in repo markets was diminished. At the same time, increased demand for funding from leveraged financial institutions (eg hedge funds) via Treasury repos appears to have compounded the strains of the temporary factors. Finally, the stress may have been amplified in part by hysteresis effects brought about by a long period of abundant reserves, owing to the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases.

And

Since 17 September, the Federal Reserve has taken various measures to supply more reserves and alleviate repo market pressures. These operations were expanded in scope to term repos (of two to six weeks) and increased in size and time horizon (at least through January 2020). [icon]  The Federal Reserve further announced on 11 October the purchase of Treasury bills at an initial pace of $60 billion per month to offset the increase in non-reserve liabilities (eg the TGA). These ongoing operations have calmed markets.

Eoin Treacy's view

It is easy to point the finger for the surge in repo rates last September at the feet of the big US four banks. However, that would be to ignore the fact banks have been forced, through the imposition of greater financial regulations, to hold more treasuries as insurance against another calamity. The low participation in the repo market by its traditional market markets created a dearth of liquidity. The US Treasury’s desire to increase its cash holdings, following the increase in Federal debt limit, was probably the catalyst for the subsequent squeeze.

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