Mexico Bonds Slump as AMLO's Spending Plan Spooks Traders
Comment of the Day

September 12 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Mexico Bonds Slump as AMLO's Spending Plan Spooks Traders

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The government presented a draft 2024 budget late on Friday that boosts support for state oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos and social programs to consolidate Lopez Obrador’s legacy before the presidential election next June. Officials also proposed an $18 billion dollar-debt ceiling in the 2024 budget, triple the $5.5 billion set for this year.  

The increased spending will result in a fiscal deficit equivalent to 4.9% of gross domestic product — the largest since 1988. It’s a reversal of the president’s penny-pinching ways, which had won him favor with investors in past years as other countries boosted spending to cope with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term so AMLO is currently priming the pump for his anointed successor. The Mexican electorate is spoiled for choice for the June 2024 election. Both candidates have impressive CVs with engineering and computer science degrees respectively, as well as some entrepreneurial experience. That represents a significant upgrade in technocratic experience for the Presidency regardless of who wins. 

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