Jokowi Tempers Growth Outlook, Warns of Middle-Income Trap
Comment of the Day

August 17 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Jokowi Tempers Growth Outlook, Warns of Middle-Income Trap

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Indonesian President Joko Widodo set a modest growth outlook next year as he underscores a narrowing window to get the country’s young population rich before it grows old.

Gross domestic product is expected to grow 5.2% in 2024, Jokowi — as the president is known — said in his annual budget speech to parliament on Wednesday. That’s toward the lower end of a 5.1%-5.7% initial estimate.

Fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.29% of GDP next year, in line with the government’s latest outlook for this year’s shortfall at 2.28%, lower than the figure in the 2023 budget. That’s still well below the legal limit of 3%.

Eoin Treacy's view

Indonesia is a significant potential beneficiary of the increasingly acrimonious relationship between China and the USA. Diversification of manufacturing capacity is an increasingly important theme and with a large young population Indonesia is in a positive position. The country’s primary challenge will be in continuity of rule when Jokowi hands over control to the next generation.  A successful transition of power would be a major indicator of improving standards of governance.

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