Robusta coffee rose to a one-month high on speculation supplies will be curbed as farmers in leading grower Vietnam hold back beans and as Ramadan's start slows sales from third-ranking Indonesia. Cocoa gained.
Coffee exports from Vietnam were probably 91,000 metric tons in June, below 141,000 tons a year earlier, the agriculture ministry estimated. Coffee deliveries from Indonesia usually accelerate before Ramadan, which starts this month. Futures for September delivery became more expensive than the November contract yesterday, a backwardation that usually signals supply concern.
“Vietnamese are likely to keep holding on to what is left of the remaining 2012-13 coffee crop, causing premiums to rise again against London futures,” Kona Haque, a London-based analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's biggest investment bank, said in a report e-mailed today.
Eoin Treacy's view Robusta coffee trended lower between March and mid June but found support in the region of the early 2012 lows and have since rebounded. A countermanding downward dynamic will be required to question potential for a further unwind of the overextension relative to the 200-day MA.Back to top