Coffee Reaches Eight-Month High as European Stockpiles Decline
Comment of the Day

May 21 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Coffee Reaches Eight-Month High as European Stockpiles Decline

This article by Isis Almeida for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The accelerated pace of the fall of robusta certified stockpiles on NYSE Liffe, the strength of the London market and the firm differentials in Vietnam and of conditions in Brazil continue to surprise the market,” Rodrigo Costa, a coffee market specialist, wrote in a report for Sao Paulo-based Archer Consulting. A differential is a discount or premium for physical coffee in relation to futures prices.

Eoin Treacy's view Robusta coffee declined steadily for most of 2011 but lost downward momentum from October and broke out of the four-month base in February. It has been ranging mostly above $1900 since and hit a new recovery high last week. A sustained move back below $2100 would be required to check potential for some additional upside.

Arabica coffee continues to trend lower but has lost momentum somewhat over the last two months. A sustained move above 190¢ would be required to question potential for continued lower to lateral ranging.

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