Cocoa Factories Slowing Down Spell Trouble for Chocolate Makers
Comment of the Day

July 21 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Cocoa Factories Slowing Down Spell Trouble for Chocolate Makers

This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The demand issues are multifold,” said Judy Ganes, president of consultancy J. Ganes Consulting, who has followed the market for more than 30 years. “There’s not just cocoa prices that are high, but sugar prices are also high, and manufacturers always look for ways to meet margins and work to put fewer chocolate chips in a cookie, or they shrink the bar sizes.”

Factories usually process cocoa several months before products are turned into chocolate. That means the slowdown likely signals the industry is expecting less demand ahead. Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest maker of bulk chocolate, said earlier this month that its sales volume fell 2.7% in the first nine months of the year, with its gourmet and specialists’ business seeing the biggest drop. 

Eoin Treacy's view

The sweet tooth of the emerging middle class has allowed companies like Nestle, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprungli AG and Hershey thrive, while simultaneously feeding a diabetes epidemic which has created of the most reliable streams of cashflow in any market. It’s truly a sign of consumer pressure when demand for an addictive product like chocolate declines.

Barry Callebaut has completed a type-3 top formation and is trending lower.

Nestle is testing the lower side of a lengthy medium-term range. It will have to find support soon if top formation completion is to be avoided.

Hershey is still trending higher and found support in the region of the 200-day MA this week.

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