Secular bull markets versus industrial revolutions
Comment of the Day

August 08 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Secular bull markets versus industrial revolutions

Eoin Treacy's view

I had the great pleasure of spending several days last week with David Brown talking about the drug discovery process, how artificial intelligence can be harnessed to speed it up, and how that all fits into the discussion around the evolution of a 3rd (some say 4th) industrial revolution. I discussed some of my updated thoughts on the subject in the Friday Big Picture audio/video. Here are some more; hopefully in a clearer format.

Before digging into the weeds, there is an important question to answer. Can you have a secular bull market without an industrial revolution? Of course the answer is yes. Industrial revolutions evolve over decades and can last a century. In that time there will be several long-term bull and bear market cycles through various asset classes.

For example, the evolution of China’s economy over the last 30 years was about the adoption of capitalistic economic policies and harnessing the labour of a billion people. That was a political decision to deploy lessons already learned elsewhere rather than new thinking. Secular bull markets in commodities develop because demand leaps higher before supply can adjust.

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