Oil Extends Rally as OPEC+ Cuts Set Up Tightest Market in Decade
Comment of the Day

September 12 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Oil Extends Rally as OPEC+ Cuts Set Up Tightest Market in Decade

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

Oil rallied to a 10-month high as production cuts by leaders of the OPEC+ cartel strain global supplies, a setup that’s projected to create the tightest crude market in a decade in the months ahead.

Global benchmark Brent climbed above $91 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate topped $89, both fresh highs for the year. The gains are already showing signs of filtering into fuel markets, with US gasoline prices at the highest seasonal levels in a decade and diesel — the global economy’s workhorse fuel — pushing past $1,000 a ton in Europe.

Oil markets may experience a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, the most constrained market in more than a decade, according to a report Tuesday from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The US Energy Information Administration will publish its monthly market report later Tuesday, with the International Energy Agency’s outlook due Wednesday.

Eoin Treacy's view

Bull markets in commodities can occur for several reasons. Those that last for more than a year or two are the result of a jump in demand and an inability to sufficiently increase supply to cater to it.

At present, OPEC is intentionally restricting supply with the intention of supporting prices. It is working.  Non-OPEC supply is not increasing quickly despite high prices.

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