RBC Capital Markets
While some will focus on Saudi Arabia not acting in concert with the rest of OPEC+, the fact that the kingdom is willing to shoulder the curbs alone adds to the credibility of the cut and signals real barrels coming off the market, analysts Helima Croft and Christopher Louney wrote in a note. Saudi Arabia has a track record of delivering on material cuts, they said.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd
.“The move by Saudi Arabia is likely to come as a surprise, considering the most recent change to quotas had only been in effect for a month,” analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes wrote in a note. “The oil market now looks like it will be even tighter in the second half of the year.”
UBS Group AG
“There has been some anticipation of a production cut, that is why the reaction this morning was a bit more muted,” Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Bloomberg television interview. Still, “the market will react further when the cut is implemented in one month’s time, as soon as inventory dynamics show a drop or exports fall from Saudi Arabia.”
$80.90 is apparently the magic number for Saudi Arabia’s budget. With so many ambitious projects in the works and a large young population, the kingdom needs to ensure its finances are in order. If that means enduring some short-term pain to support prices, that appears to be a price they are willing to pay.
The Brent crude price jumped to test the $80 level immediately following news of the production cut but has now surmounted that level. In a benign global economic environment, the impact of a supply cut would be more forceful.
Today, China’s demand growth picture is uncertain and the large jump in global interest rates is taking a toll on global economic activity. That suggests a demand catalyst will be a more important factor for oil market strength than supply cuts. At a minimum, crude oil will need to break the sequence of lower rally highs to confirm a return to demand dominance.Back to top