Harvey Likely to Be First Hurricane to Strike Texas Since 2008
Comment of the Day

August 24 2017

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Harvey Likely to Be First Hurricane to Strike Texas Since 2008

This article by Brian K Sullivan and Melissa Cheok for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

“It could intensify right up to landfall on Friday,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “I expect a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, but I cannot rule out a Category 2.”

Harvey is expected to bring multiple hazards including heavy rainfall, storm surge and possible hurricane conditions to parts of the Texas coast on Friday. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread across portions of south, central and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding, according to the advisory.

The Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, is home to nearly 30 refineries -- making up about 7 million barrels a day of refining capacity, or one-third of the U.S. total. It’s in the path of expected heavy rainfall. Flooding poses risks to operations and may cause power failures.

Eoin Treacy's view

The last few years have been particularly quiet hurricane seasons and even though Harvey will struggle to exceed category one its location ensures there will be plenty of precipitation falling in the Corpus Christ through Louisiana areas which will disrupt businesses. 

The region is one of the USA’s primary cotton producing areas. The price pulled back sharply from the May peak and has stabilised above 65¢ since mid-July. It is currently firming, having posted a higher reaction low, and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for some additional upside. 

Sugar posted a higher reaction low this week on concerns Harvey could hit Louisiana’s cane fields. 

Gasoline has been firming within this year’s range and has spent most of its time above $1.50. A sustained move below $156 would be required to question potential for a further test of overhead trading. 

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